In spite of the slowdown in the economy, threatened with moderate recessions in the United States and Europe, the Rolling cargo transportation faces 2023 with some moderate optimism and without losing sight of the risks that the current global panorama draws.
In addition to this factor, there are also great uncertainties in the evolution of the war crisis in Ukraine, inflation, the high prices of energy and some raw materials and, of course, a pandemic that has not just been left behind. Nevertheless, Wallenius Wilhelmsen estimates that ro-ro has better prospects for this year, especially in view of the moderate behavior of the global automotive market last year.
Likewise, the analysis is also influenced by the limitation of existing capacity in the field of ro-ro cargo and the lack of orders for new vessels. Specifically, the shipping company estimates that the world fleet of large ro-ro ships is around 600 units and that it will grow very little this year, since orders are only registered for eleven new vessels of this type, a volume that, according to estimates, will have a very limited impact on supply.
On the other hand, there is also the possibility that China tries to boost its exports of electric vehicles, in order to get its share of the pie in this market, although, at the same time, Wallenius Wilhelmsen also predicts that this impulse could be concentrated in the second half of the year, once the uncertainties generated by the impact of the pandemic on a population with little immunization after the drastic opening of the country are cleared up.
Another factor to take into account is a possible stabilization in the upward trend in energy and raw material prices, after several months of strong growth. Specifically, the shipping company estimates that the prices of agri-food products could boost investment by farmers in new machinery, which, in turn, would imply greater demand for transport.
In turn, the improvement in the supply of electronic components may lead to a normalization of global automobile production, especially for passenger cars.
Source: MasContainer
